India set to grow older by 2036, says report amid declining fertility rate, rising life expectancy

NEW DELHI: A larger part of the population in India will grow older in the year 2036 as the proportion of the age group 0-24 is expected to fall from 50.2 per cent in 2011 to 35.3 per cent in the year 2036.

Moreover, with the declining fertility, along with the increases in life expectancy, the number of older persons (over 60 years) in the population is expected to increase by more than double from 10 crores in 2011 to 23 crores in 2036 - an increase in their share to the total population from 8.4 to 14.9 percent.

The fact has come out in population projections of India and States (2011-2036), a report prepared by a 'Technical Group on Population Projection'.

Moreover, in the age group of 15-24, its share to the total population is expected to fall from 19.3 percent in 2011 to 15.1 percent in 2036. Similarly, the proportion of the population in the working age-group 15-59 years is expected to rise from 60.7 percent in 2011 to 64.9 percent in 2036.

The report released recently says that the population of India is expected to increase from 121.1 crores to 152.2 crores during the period 2011-2036 - an increase of 25.7 percent in twenty- five years at the rate of 1.0 percent annually. As a consequence, the density of the population will increase from 368 to 463 persons per square kilometer.

The crude birth rate will decline from 20.1 during 2011-15 to 13.1 during 2031-35 because of the falling level of total fertility. In contrast, the crude death rate is expected to increase marginally due to the changing age structure of the population with the rising median age as a result of a continuing decline in fertility and an increase in the expectation of life at birth. It will increase from 7.2 during 2011-15 to 7.3 during 2031-35.

The infant mortality rate of the country, which is reported to be 46 in 2010 is expected to go down to 30 by the end of the period 2031-35.

The report said that between 2011 and 2036, because of the declining fertility, the proportion of the population aged under 15 years is projected to decline from 30.9 to 20.1 percent; the proportion of the middle age-group (15-59 years) and the older ages (60 years and above) are set to increase considerably.

Another important consequence of the declining fertility will be that, at the national level, the population in the school-going age of 5-14 years is expected to decline from 25.4 crores in 2011 to 20.9 crores in 2036.

The share of the population aged 5-14 years to the total population of all ages is expected to decrease by 7.2 percent from 21.0 percent in 2011 to 13.8 percent in 2036. 4

The youth population in the age- group 15-24 years is expected to increase from 23.3 crores in 2011 to 25.1 crores in 2021 and then continue to decrease to 22.9 crores in 2036. Its proportion to the total population is expected to fall from 19.3 percent in 2011 to 15.1 percent in 2036.

“From the above, it is evident that 50.2 percent of the population in the country, was aged 24 years and below in 2011, constituting 30.9 percent and 19.3 percent in the ages 0-14 years and 15-24 years respectively,” said the report.

Out of the total population increase of 31.1 crores between 2011 and 2036, the share of the workers in the age-group 15-59 years in this total increase is 81.4 percent. This has implications in the availability of labour in the future, the report said.

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